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Anticipating Climate-Induced Displacement: Trends and Prediction Models

Date: 20 May 2021, 12:00 – 13:30 CEST

Climate disasters and extreme weather conditions along with the secondary effects of climate change like food insecurity and violent conflicts are expected to raise the numbers of migrants significantly over the course of the upcoming decades. The availability of reliable data is an important pre-requisite for adequate anticipatory action and early responses. However, to date, humanitarian organisations are encountering serious data gaps and the question if forecasting of refugee movements is (already) possible or not is highly contested. This panel focuses on the data basis of anticipatory humanitarian action, taking into account longer term trends as well as short term prediction models.

Speakers

  • Kanta K. Rigaud, World Bank Group
  • Pablo Ferrández, IDMC
  • Alexander Kjaerum, Danish Refugee Council
  • Diana Suleimanova, Brunei University London
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